All In Podcast 2025 Predictions
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
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1. The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week!
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Hosts introduce guest Gavin Baker and discuss his investment firm
Recap of the hosts' recent ski trip and skiing abilities
Introduction of new partnership with Poly Market for prediction markets
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1.1. Introduction and guest welcome
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Jason introduces the show and guest Gavin Baker
Gavin describes his investment firm Atreides Management
Hosts discuss the size of Gavin's firm ($4 billion)
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1.2. Ski trip recap and Poly Market partnership
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Hosts discuss their recent ski trip and abilities
Jason introduces new partnership with Poly Market
Explanation of how prediction markets will work with the podcast
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2. Biggest Political Winner
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Hosts discuss predictions for biggest political winner of 2025
Predictions include fiscal conservatives, young candidates, and Gen X/Elder Millennials
Discussion of potential shifts in political landscape
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2.1. Chamath's prediction: Fiscal conservatives
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Chamath predicts fiscal conservatives will be the biggest political winners
Discusses potential for austerity measures and uncovering government waste
Suggests this trend may influence state elections
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2.2. Other hosts' predictions
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Friedberg predicts young candidates will be winners
Gavin suggests Trump and centrism
Jason predicts Gen X and Elder Millennials will be political winners
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3. Biggest Political Loser
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Hosts discuss predictions for biggest political loser of 2025
Predictions include Putin, neocons, and progressivism
Discussion of potential geopolitical shifts and domestic political changes
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3.1. Gavin's prediction: Putin
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Gavin predicts Putin will be the biggest political loser
Discusses potential decoupling of China from Russia
Suggests Trump may be tougher on Putin than expected
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3.2. Friedberg's prediction: Neocons
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Friedberg predicts neocons will be political losers
Discusses potential clash with JD Vance and others
Gavin suggests there may still be bellicose rhetoric for negotiation purposes
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3.3. Chamath's prediction: Progressivism
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Chamath predicts progressivism will be the biggest political loser
Discusses potential political shifts in Canada, Germany, France, and UK
Suggests a repudiation of identity politics and class-based politics
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4. Biggest Business Winner
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Hosts discuss predictions for biggest business winner of 2025
Predictions include robotics/autonomous hardware, big businesses using AI, and dollar-denominated stablecoins
Discussion of potential technological advancements and market shifts
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4.1. Friedberg's prediction: Autonomous hardware/robotics
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Friedberg predicts autonomous hardware and robotics will be big winners
Discusses advancements in robotics like the Go2 robot
Suggests 2025 will be the year of the robot
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4.2. Gavin's prediction: Big businesses using AI
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Gavin predicts big businesses that use AI thoughtfully will be winners
Discusses the importance of compute power and reasoning in AI
Suggests large companies will have an advantage in AI implementation
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4.3. Chamath's prediction: Dollar-denominated stablecoins
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Chamath predicts dollar-denominated stablecoins will be big winners
Discusses decoupling of stablecoins from crypto volatility
Suggests stablecoins could challenge Visa and Mastercard's dominance
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4.4. Discussion on stablecoins and regulation
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Hosts discuss potential regulation of stablecoins
Chamath argues for the economic benefits of stablecoins
Discussion of the impact on global financial systems
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5. Biggest Business Loser
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Hosts discuss predictions for biggest business loser of 2025
Predictions include government service providers, MAGA stocks, and traditional defense/aerospace providers
Discussion of potential market shifts and technological disruptions
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5.1. Gavin's prediction: Government service providers
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Gavin predicts government service providers will be big losers
Suggests companies with over 35% revenue from government contracts are at risk
Discusses potential for increased scrutiny of government spending
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5.2. Chamath's prediction: MAGA stocks
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Chamath predicts MAGA stocks will face significant drawdowns
Discusses concerns about concentration in top companies
Suggests potential for trillions in losses despite strong fundamentals
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5.3. Friedberg's prediction: Traditional defense and aerospace providers
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Friedberg predicts old defense and aerospace providers will be losers
Discusses shift towards more tech-oriented and AI-driven defense spending
Suggests companies like Palantir and Anduril will benefit
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5.4. Discussion on consulting companies and inefficiencies
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Hosts discuss potential impact on traditional consulting companies
Chamath suggests scrutiny of cost-plus contracts and time-and-materials billing
Discussion of potential for exposing waste and inefficiency in government contracts
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6. Biggest Business Deal
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Hosts discuss predictions for biggest business deal of 2025
Predictions include auto industry consolidation, wave of M&A activity, and deals in autonomous transportation
Discussion of potential market shifts and technological disruptions
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6.1. Chamath's prediction: Auto industry consolidation
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Chamath predicts collapse of traditional auto OEMs and consolidation
Discusses recent Honda-Nissan merger as a signal
Suggests Tesla's dominance will force consolidation in the industry
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6.2. Gavin's prediction: Wave of M&A activity
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Gavin predicts a wave of M&A activity after years of inactivity
Suggests something significant will happen with Intel
Discusses potential for independent AI labs to be acquired
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6.3. Jason's prediction: Deals in autonomous transportation
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Jason predicts major deals in autonomous transportation sector
Discusses potential partnerships between companies like Amazon, Uber, Tesla, and Waymo
Suggests consolidation in food delivery and e-commerce spaces
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7. Most Contrarian Belief
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Hosts discuss their most contrarian beliefs for 2025
Predictions include banking crisis, rise of socialist movements, and high GDP growth
Discussion of potential economic and political shifts
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7.1. Chamath's prediction: Banking crisis
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Chamath predicts potential banking crisis in a major bank
Discusses impact of high interest rates on total indebtedness
Suggests small but non-trivial risk of reserve issues in mainline banks
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7.2. Gavin's prediction: High GDP growth
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Gavin predicts at least one year of >5% real GDP growth in next four years
Discusses potential for vertical productivity growth due to AI and deregulation
Suggests frontier AI labs may stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
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7.3. Friedberg's prediction: Rise of socialist movements
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Friedberg predicts dramatic rise in socialist movements in the US
Discusses potential for economic disruption and inequality due to AI
Suggests rapid change could fuel socialist policies and movements
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7.4. Jason's prediction: Collapse of OpenAI
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Jason predicts OpenAI will lose its lead and become the #4 player in AI
Discusses potential challenges in OpenAI's transition from non-profit to for-profit
Suggests competition from Google, Microsoft, and others will impact OpenAI
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8. Best Performing Asset
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Hosts discuss predictions for best performing asset of 2025
Predictions include high bandwidth memory companies, credit default swaps, and Chinese tech stocks
Discussion of potential market shifts and technological advancements
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8.1. Gavin's prediction: High bandwidth memory companies
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Gavin predicts companies making high bandwidth memory will perform best
Discusses importance of HBM in GPUs and AI compute
Suggests HBM is more important than ever in the age of test time compute
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8.2. Chamath's prediction: Credit default swaps
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Chamath suggests buying insurance through credit default swaps
Discusses potential for volatility and high returns if prediction is correct
Emphasizes this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy
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8.3. Friedberg's prediction: Chinese tech stocks
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Friedberg predicts Chinese tech stocks or ETFs will perform best
Discusses potential for improved US-China relations under Trump
Suggests Chinese tech companies are well-positioned for global markets
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8. Best Performing Asset
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Discussed predictions for best performing assets in 2025
Covered various sectors including high bandwidth memory, credit default swaps, and Chinese tech stocks
Explored potential market trends and economic factors influencing asset performance
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1.1. Introduction and Previous Predictions
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Reviewed last year's predictions for best performing assets
Discussed the performance of various assets in 2024
Introduced the topic of best performing asset predictions for 2025
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1.2. Gavin's Prediction: High Bandwidth Memory
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Gavin predicts companies making high bandwidth memory will perform best
Explained the importance of high bandwidth memory in GPUs and AI compute
Discussed the limited number of companies capable of producing this technology
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1.3. Chamath's Prediction: Credit Default Swaps
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Chamath suggests buying insurance using credit default swaps
Explained the high-risk, high-reward nature of this investment strategy
Discussed the potential for volatility in the market and the need for insurance
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1.4. Friedberg's Prediction: Chinese Tech Stocks
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Friedberg predicts Chinese tech stocks or ETFs will perform best
Discussed potential for improved US-China relations and market access
Highlighted the low cost of electricity production and potential for innovation in China
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9. Worst Performing Asset
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Discussed predictions for worst performing assets in 2025
Focused on enterprise application software and its challenges in the AI era
Explored potential disruptions in various sectors due to technological advancements
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2.1. Review of Previous Predictions
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Recalled last year's predictions for worst performing assets
Discussed the performance of various assets in 2024
Introduced the topic of worst performing asset predictions for 2025
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2.2. Gavin's Prediction: Enterprise Application Software
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Gavin predicts enterprise application software will perform worst
Discussed the impact of AI agents on traditional software businesses
Highlighted the challenges faced by companies without their own models or compute
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2.3. Chamath's Prediction: Software Industrial Complex
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Chamath agrees with Gavin's prediction, focusing on the 'software industrial complex'
Discussed the inefficiencies and high costs of traditional enterprise software
Predicted disruption by more efficient AI-driven solutions
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10. Most Anticipated Trend
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Discussed predictions for the most anticipated trends in 2025
Covered topics including AI advancements, nuclear power, and potential government disclosures
Explored the potential impact of these trends on various sectors and society
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3.1. Review of Previous Predictions
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Recalled last year's predictions for most anticipated trends
Discussed the accuracy of previous predictions
Introduced the topic of most anticipated trend predictions for 2025
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3.2. Chamath's Prediction: Financial Regulation Changes
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Chamath predicts changes in financial regulations, specifically the supplemental loss ratio
Discussed potential implications for banks and debt management
Highlighted the importance of monitoring these changes for economic stability
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3.3. Friedberg's Prediction: Nuclear Power Deregulation
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Friedberg anticipates announcements of nuclear power buildout in the United States
Discussed the potential for deregulation and new technologies in the nuclear sector
Highlighted the necessity of increased power production capacity
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11. Most Anticipated Media
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Discussed predictions for the most anticipated media in 2025
Covered various forms of media including TV shows, declassified files, and AI-driven video games
Explored potential impacts of media on public discourse and entertainment
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4.1. Jason's Prediction: Legacy Media Outlets
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Jason predicts interest in changes at legacy media outlets owned by billionaires
Discussed potential shifts towards middle ground in journalism
Highlighted the potential for conflicts within newsrooms
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4.2. Chamath's Prediction: Declassified Files
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Chamath anticipates the release of declassified files by the Trump administration
Discussed potential revelations from various conspiracy theories
Highlighted the public interest in government transparency
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12. Super Predictions
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Discussed various prediction markets and potential bets for 2025
Covered topics including immigration, national debt, and market concentration
Explored methods for measuring and verifying these predictions
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5.1. Immigration and Deportation Prediction
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Proposed a prediction market on Trump's deportation numbers
Discussed the challenges of measuring and verifying deportation statistics
Compared potential numbers to previous administrations
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5.2. National Debt Prediction
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Proposed a prediction market on the increase in national debt
Discussed the historical trends in debt increase
Explored potential impacts of different administrations on debt levels
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13. Bonus: Drones, UFOs, and more
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Discussed recent UFO sightings and government knowledge
Explored conspiracy theories related to extraterrestrial life
Debated the likelihood of government possession of alien technology
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6.1. Recent UFO Sightings and Government Knowledge
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Discussed recent drone sightings in New Jersey
Explored historical patterns of UFO sightings and their correlation with technological advancements
Debated the possibility of government knowledge about extraterrestrial life
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6.2. Conspiracy Theories and Government Secrecy
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Discussed the likelihood of government possession of alien technology
Explored the potential for declassification of UFO-related documents
Debated the credibility of various conspiracy theories
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6.3. Alternative Explanations and Closing Thoughts
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Discussed alternative explanations for UFO sightings and ancient structures
Explored the concept of advanced civilizations and information gathering
Concluded the episode with final thoughts on extraterrestrial life and technology